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4

Caballo Grande

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 2 · OR 92

Southwell · Make The Move To Midnite Handicap · 6f 16y

#1

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

94%

Place Prob

72%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Promise on turf debut before wide-margin all-weather wins at Southwell and Wolverhampton 5 months apart. Didn't look straightforward when down the field in a couple of turf handicaps in the spring and has been off since, but drop back to sprinting could suit and has been subsequently gelded.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.4
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Goodwood 12/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 6f Gd 13312/1045 @ Southwell 31/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 6f16y Std 13331/1054 @ Wolverhampton 17/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 7f36y Std 13417/0342 @ Newbury 17/04/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 95 · 7f Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/04/2026 · OR 95 par17/042OR 952 @ Chester 07/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 94 · 7f127y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 94 par7/052OR 94projClass-projected finish: 9th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-07ChesterH Crouch29th8th+1
2026-04-17NewburyH Crouch214th13th+1
2026-03-17WolverhamptonH Crouch41st2nd−1
2025-10-31SouthwellJason Hart51st3rd−2
2025-10-12GoodwoodH Crouch43rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/1031/1017/0317/047/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 7-10 · tight 75/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength42%

Delivery trend +6.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/10/20253rd9/276%67%-0.10
31/10/20251st10/1195%100%+0.05
17/03/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
17/04/202614th22/10%0%0.00
07/05/20269th25/10%27%+0.27