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3

Desert Falcon

6yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 13 · OR 92

Southwell · Make The Move To Midnite Handicap · 6f 16y

#10

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Enjoyed a fine 2025, scoring twice before a neck second in Ayr Gold Cup. Has failed to hit those heights this year after a couple of breathing operations, however, down the field in the Ayr Silver Cup 6 weeks ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength51%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Haydock 04/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 83 · 6f212y Goo 140 · beat its mark04/07/2025 · OR 83 par4/074OR 833 @ Thirsk 02/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 88 · 7f Goo 133 · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 88 par2 @ Doncaster 14/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 88 · 6f111y Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 88 par14/092OR 882 @ Ayr 20/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 25 · OR 88 · 6f Sft 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 88 par2 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 22 · OR 97 · 6f Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 97 par13/052OR 973 @ Doncaster 06/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 96 · 7f6y GF 136 · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 96 par2 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 20 · OR 95 · 6f Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 95 par22/082OR 952 @ Doncaster 12/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 21 · OR 93 · 5f143y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 93 par2 @ Ayr 19/09/2026 · Pos 17th of 23 · OR 95 · 6f Hvy 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 95 par19/092OR 95projClass-projected finish: 7th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19AyrRyan Sexton217th16th+1
2026-09-12DoncasterRyan Sexton26th5th+1
2026-08-22YorkRyan Sexton29th8th+1
2026-06-06DoncasterRyan Sexton39th9th0
2026-05-13YorkRyan Sexton214th13th+1
2025-09-20AyrRowan Scott22nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0720/0922/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 3-14 · tight 42/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength30%

Delivery trend -1.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/07/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
02/08/20253rd5/287%83%-0.04
14/09/20251st9/153%100%+0.47
20/09/20252nd8/158%96%+0.38
13/05/202614th33/10%38%+0.38
06/06/20269th6/168%20%-0.48
22/08/20269th66/10%58%+0.58
12/09/20266th20/10%75%+0.75
19/09/202617th7/163%27%-0.36