Evening Blues
3yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 5 · OR 83
Southwell · Make The Move To Midnite Handicap · 6f 16y
#12
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Doncaster | Ethan Tindall | 4 | 13th | 14th | −1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Leicester | Ben Robinson | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | York | R P Downey | 2 | 18th | 17th | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | York | Ben Robinson | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Musselburgh | D Allan | 2 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Wetherby | Shane Foley | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/2025 | 2nd | 16/5 | 83% | 92% | +0.09 |
| 21/11/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 17/12/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 91% | -0.01 |
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 60% | +0.55 |
| 06/06/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 50/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 25/07/2026 | 18th | 10/1 | 47% | 15% | -0.32 |
| 09/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 13/09/2026 | 13th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |