Hammer The Hammer
4yo Colt · 9-11 · Draw 8 · OR 93
Southwell · Make The Move To Midnite Handicap · 6f 16y
#3
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 6 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 13.6 /10 (raw 8.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Ayr | T Eaves | 2 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2026-08-22 | York | Shane Gray | 2 | 18th | 17th | +1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Goodwood | Toby Moore | 2 | 21th | 20th | +1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Royal Ascot | K Stott | 2 | 16th | 15th | +1 |
| 2026-05-14 | York | Jack Callan | 2 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2025-10-11 | York | Warren Fentiman | 2 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 96% | +0.19 |
| 02/08/2025 | 15th | 9/2 | 76% | 46% | -0.30 |
| 20/09/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 11/10/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 72% | +0.06 |
| 14/05/2026 | 14th | 7/1 | 63% | 35% | -0.28 |
| 20/06/2026 | 16th | 22/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 01/08/2026 | 21st | 33/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 22/08/2026 | 18th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 19/09/2026 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |