IvyArcIvyArc
5

Indian Run

5yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 4 · OR 90

Southwell · Make The Move To Midnite Handicap · 6f 16y

#4

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won at Thirsk in July to end a long losing run and placed in slightly better races than this all 3 starts since. Makes a belated first start on all-weather.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength80%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 26/07/2025 · Pos 16th of 19 · OR 94 · 6f Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/07/2025 · OR 94 par26/072OR 942 @ Windsor 11/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 92 · 6f12y GF 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/08/2025 · OR 92 par2 @ Newmarket 02/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 90 · 6f GF 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 90 par2/052OR 902 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 22 · OR 88 · 6f Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 88 par3 @ Windsor 15/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 85 · 6f12y Goo 130 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 85 par15/063OR 853 @ Thirsk 01/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 86 · 6f Goo 138 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 86 par2 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 90 · 5f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 90 par25/072OR 902 @ Windsor 10/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 90 · 6f12y GF 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 90 par2 @ Ripon 26/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 91 · 6f Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/09/2026 · OR 91 par26/092OR 91projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-26RiponRyan Sexton23rd2nd+1
2026-08-10WindsorRyan Sexton23rd2nd+1
2026-07-25AscotRyan Sexton23rd2nd+1
2026-07-01ThirskRyan Sexton31st1st0
2026-06-15WindsorS M Levey32nd2nd0
2026-05-13YorkMarco Ghiani29th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0713/0525/0726/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 87/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/07/202516th16/116%17%+0.01
11/08/20257th14/126%45%+0.19
02/05/20268th28/10%13%+0.13
13/05/20269th28/10%62%+0.62
15/06/20262nd8/158%91%+0.33
01/07/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
25/07/20263rd13/266%83%+0.18
10/08/20263rd11/142%87%+0.45
26/09/20263rd17/255%82%+0.27