14
Novello Lad
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 14 · OR 82
Southwell · Make The Move To Midnite Handicap · 6f 16y
#13
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 10.5 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Pontefract | D Nolan | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | Doncaster | D Nolan | 3 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Thirsk | D Nolan | 3 | 17th | 17th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | York | P Mulrennan | 2 | 17th | 16th | +1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thirsk | D Nolan | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Doncaster | D Nolan | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 7-14 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength16%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |
| 23/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 01/07/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 22% | -0.54 |
| 25/07/2026 | 17th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 28/08/2026 | 17th | 33/1 | 0% | 6% | +0.06 |
| 13/09/2026 | 14th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 05/10/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |