So Darn Hot
4yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 6 · OR 89
Southwell · Make The Move To Midnite Handicap · 6f 16y
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.4 /10 (raw 6.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Haydock | George Downing | 3 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Salisbury | K Shoemark | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Ascot | K Shoemark | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Royal Ascot | Ashley Lewis | 2 | 28th | 27th | +1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Ascot | K Shoemark | 2 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Newcastle | Ashley Lewis | 2 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/11/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 17/12/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 56% | -0.27 |
| 01/01/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 8% | -0.07 |
| 03/04/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 09/05/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 18/06/2026 | 28th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 12/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 26/09/2026 | 11th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |