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12

Starmade

3yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 12 · OR 85

Southwell · Make The Move To Midnite Handicap · 6f 16y

#11

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Both wins at Newcastle, including second handicap start in May. Caught the eye when fifth of 27 in Palace of Holyroodhouse at Royal Ascot next time but his development has stalled since. Returns to all-weather after a break having had a gelding operation.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Pontefract 18/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 6f GS 13018/0955 @ Ayr 30/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 6f Sft 1335 @ Newcastle 14/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 5f Std 13314/1054 @ Bath 17/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 80 · 5f160y Gd 135 · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Newcastle 01/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 80 · 6f Std 135 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 80 par1/054OR 802 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 27 · OR 88 · 5f GF 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 88 par2 @ Newmarket 09/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 88 · 6f Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 88 par9/072OR 883 @ Thirsk 28/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 18 · OR 87 · 6f Gd 134 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 87 par28/083OR 87projClass-projected finish: 4th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28ThirskP J McDonald38th8th0
2026-07-09NewmarketJ P Spencer210th9th+1
2026-06-19Royal AscotHarry Davies25th4th+1
2026-05-01NewcastleP J McDonald41st2nd−1
2026-04-17BathJ P Spencer43rd4th−1
2025-10-14NewcastleJ P Spencer51st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0917/049/0728/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 10-13 · tight 79/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength17%

Delivery trend +1.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/09/20253rd17/255%75%+0.20
30/09/20252nd3/184%86%+0.02
14/10/20251st11/893%100%+0.07
17/04/20263rd10/382%83%+0.01
01/05/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
19/06/20265th17/255%85%+0.29
09/07/202610th16/116%25%+0.09
28/08/20268th11/142%59%+0.17