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8

The Caltonian

7yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 3 · OR 89

Southwell · Make The Move To Midnite Handicap · 6f 16y

#6

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Much better horse on all-weather and he won off a similar mark at Newcastle in January. Holding his form well on turf this summer until unsuited by conditions latest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength33%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newcastle 16/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 88 · 6f Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 88 par16/012OR 883 @ Newcastle 06/02/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 93 · 5f Std 133 · below its mark06/02/2026 · OR 93 par3 @ Newcastle 13/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 93 · 6f Std 133 · below its mark13/04/2026 · OR 93 par13/043OR 932 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 92 · 6f Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 92 par4 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 17 · OR 72 · 6f Gd 129 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 72 par6/074OR 723 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 69 · 6f GF 121 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 69 par4 @ Newmarket 07/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 69 · 6f GF 129 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 69 par7/084OR 695 @ Redcar 22/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 68 · 5f217y Goo 133 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Ayr 17/09/2026 · Pos 16th of 20 · OR 67 · 5f Goo 135 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 67 par17/095OR 67projClass-projected finish: 11th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17AyrC Lee516th18th−2
2026-08-22RedcarAlex Jary53rd5th−2
2026-08-07NewmarketOisin Murphy44th5th−1
2026-07-20AyrA Mullen35th5th0
2026-07-06AyrA Mullen412th13th−1
2026-06-27NewcastleP Mulrennan25th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0127/067/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 4-14 · tight 48/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength6%

Delivery trend -5.8% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/01/20261st33/10%100%+1.00
06/02/202613th11/271%8%-0.63
13/04/202610th10/147%0%-0.47
27/06/20265th100/10%69%+0.69
06/07/202612th28/10%31%+0.31
20/07/20265th33/10%50%+0.50
07/08/20264th4/179%67%-0.12
22/08/20263rd9/276%80%+0.04
17/09/202616th11/271%21%-0.50