Aleppo Pepper
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 54
Southwell · Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap · 4f 214y
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | Newcastle | L Morris | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-10-05 | Yarmouth | Donagh Murphy | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Lingfield | L Morris | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Southwell | Darragh Keenan | 4 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-01-29 | Dundalk | Mikey Sheehy | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2024-10-09 | Navan | Keithen Kennedy | ? | 13th | 15th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -12.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2024 | 13th | 66/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 29/01/2025 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 09/04/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 28/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/10/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 20/10/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |