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Hi Lord

4yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 5 · OR 64

Southwell · Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap · 4f 214y

#7

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well supported and back to form for his new yard with victory in 14-runner handicap at Bath (5f, good) 23 days ago. Up 4 lb but he should remain competitive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Hamilton 03/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 63 · 5f7y Gd 134 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 63 par3/056OR 635 @ Hamilton 04/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 66 · 5f7y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Hamilton 10/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 66 · 5f7y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 66 par10/065OR 665 @ Ayr 13/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 66 · 5f Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 66 par6 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 65 · 5f Goo 140 · below its mark08/08/2026 · OR 65 par8/086OR 656 @ Catterick 08/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 63 · 5f212y Goo 139 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Ayr 17/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 20 · OR 63 · 5f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 63 par17/095OR 636 @ Southwell 03/10/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 60 · 4f214y Std 131 · below its mark03/10/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Bath 08/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 60 · 5f10y Gd 130 · beat its mark08/10/2026 · OR 60 par8/106OR 60projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-08BathRay Dawson61st1st0
2026-10-03SouthwellBilly Garritty68th8th0
2026-09-17AyrT Eaves511th10th+1
2026-09-08CatterickBarry McHugh65th5th0
2026-08-08AyrBarry McHugh610th10th0
2026-07-13AyrBarry McHugh53rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0513/0717/098/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 34/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength59%

Delivery trend -0.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/05/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
04/06/20263rd7/282%60%-0.22
10/06/20267th9/488%0%-0.88
13/07/20263rd12/137%80%+0.43
08/08/202610th9/276%18%-0.58
08/09/20265th9/153%50%-0.03
17/09/202611th10/147%47%0.00
03/10/20268th7/282%22%-0.59
08/10/20261st4/179%100%+0.21