Noelies Dream
3yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 4 · OR 65
Southwell · Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap · 4f 214y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 6.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Windsor | K S McHugh | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-09-07 | Windsor | Christian Howarth | 5 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Southwell | P J McDonald | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-11-24 | Newcastle | George Wood | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Nottingham | Kyle Strydom | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-09-17 | Beverley | Jason Hart | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/08/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 17/09/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 64% | +0.11 |
| 23/10/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 24/11/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 12/12/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 07/09/2026 | 13th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/09/2026 | 5th | 125/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |