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6

Popular Dream

6yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 2 · OR 60

Southwell · Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap · 4f 214y

#4

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Recorded a fifth C&D victory in October and not seen to best effect with fifth of 11 in handicap over C&D 9 days ago. Ought to be thereabouts.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 07/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 66 · 4f214y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/02/2026 · OR 66 par7/025OR 665 @ Wolverhampton 27/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 65 · 5f21y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/02/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Southwell 10/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 63 · 4f214y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/03/2026 · OR 63 par10/035OR 636 @ Southwell 28/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 61 · 4f214y Std 131 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Southwell 21/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 59 · 4f214y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 59 par21/055OR 596 @ Southwell 26/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 57 · 4f214y Std 130 · beat its mark26/09/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Southwell 03/10/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 55 · 4f214y Std 126 · beat its mark03/10/2026 · OR 55 par3/106OR 556 @ Southwell 06/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 55 · 4f214y Std 135 · beat its mark06/10/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Southwell 22/10/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 60 · 4f215y Std 135 · beat its mark22/10/2026 · OR 60 par22/106OR 60projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-22SouthwellAlex Jary65th5th0
2026-10-06SouthwellJoanna Mason61st1st0
2026-10-03SouthwellAlex Jary65th5th0
2026-09-26SouthwellAlex Jary64th4th0
2026-05-21SouthwellDarragh Keenan59th8th+1
2026-03-28SouthwellJoanna Mason68th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0228/033/1022/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/02/20266th6/168%38%-0.31
27/02/20266th25/10%17%+0.17
10/03/20266th7/163%55%-0.09
28/03/20268th5/174%30%-0.44
21/05/20269th22/10%11%+0.11
26/09/20264th22/10%63%+0.63
03/10/20265th12/137%56%+0.19
06/10/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
22/10/20265th6/168%60%-0.08