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5

Toptime

8yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 6 · OR 62

Southwell · Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap · 4f 214y

#1

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

91%

Place Prob

67%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a third C&D win in October. Went too freely over 6f when fifth of 8 in handicap here 21 days ago. Can go very well back at his optimum trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Pontefract 06/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 59 · 5f3y Sft 129 · below its mark06/10/2025 · OR 59 par6/106OR 596 @ Southwell 31/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 59 · 4f214y Std 129 · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 59 par6 @ Thirsk 05/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 58 · 5f Gd 133 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 58 par5/066OR 586 @ Nottingham 11/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 58 · 5f8y Sft 134 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Beverley 20/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 61 · 5f Goo 131 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 61 par20/076OR 616 @ Southwell 16/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 61 · 6f16y Std 136 · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Leicester 08/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 61 · 5f GS 134 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 61 par8/096OR 616 @ Southwell 03/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 60 · 4f214y Std 131 · beat its mark03/10/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Southwell 10/10/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 62 · 6f16y Std 135 · beat its mark10/10/2026 · OR 62 par10/106OR 62projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-10SouthwellDarragh Keenan65th5th0
2026-10-03SouthwellDarragh Keenan61st1st0
2026-09-08LeicesterAlistair Rawlinson67th7th0
2026-08-16SouthwellJoe Bradnam62nd2nd0
2026-07-20BeverleyGeorge Wood63rd3rd0
2026-06-11NottinghamJack Gilligan61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/1011/068/0910/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 59/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength73%

Delivery trend -0.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/10/202510th14/126%18%-0.08
31/10/20254th15/261%67%+0.06
05/06/20263rd12/137%82%+0.45
11/06/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
20/07/20263rd11/142%78%+0.36
16/08/20262nd12/137%92%+0.55
08/09/20267th12/137%40%+0.03
03/10/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
10/10/20265th7/163%43%-0.20