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2

Midnight Rumble

5yo Gelding · 10-1 · Draw 2 · OR 74

Southwell · Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Apprentice Handicap · 1m 6f 21y

#5

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

His sole success came in June 2024 for Alan King and he has failed to build on an encouraging start for his current stable, only sixth of 9 in handicap at Chester (2m, good) in August.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▼1
Strength69%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Newbury 24/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 83 · 1m4f Sft 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 83 par24/103OR 834 @ Chelmsford City 02/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 83 · 1m2f Std 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/01/2026 · OR 83 par4 @ Wolverhampton 30/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 83 · 1m4f51y Std 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/01/2026 · OR 83 par30/014OR 834 @ Southwell 10/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 81 · 1m3f23y Std 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/03/2026 · OR 81 par3 @ Kempton 06/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 83 · 1m3f219y Sta 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/04/2026 · OR 83 par6/043OR 834 @ Chester 30/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 82 · 1m7f196y Gd 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Chester 27/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 80 · 1m7f196y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 80 par27/064OR 804 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 79 · 2m56y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Chester 22/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 77 · 1m7f196y Goo 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 77 par22/084OR 77projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22ChesterLuke Catton46th5th+1
2026-07-24YorkRob Hornby413th12th+1
2026-06-27ChesterS M Levey43rd2nd+1
2026-05-30ChesterJoe Leavy45th4th+1
2026-04-06KemptonRossa Ryan34th2nd+2
2026-03-10SouthwellLuke Catton42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/1010/0327/0622/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength49%

Delivery trend +2.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/10/202511th14/126%9%-0.17
02/01/20263rd12/137%71%+0.35
30/01/20265th12/137%56%+0.19
10/03/20262nd8/158%80%+0.22
06/04/20264th15/261%63%+0.02
30/05/20265th33/10%50%+0.50
27/06/20263rd12/137%67%+0.30
24/07/202613th28/10%0%0.00
22/08/20266th40/10%38%+0.38