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3

Neswick

3yo Filly · 9-8 · Draw 1 · OR 73

Southwell · Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Apprentice Handicap · 1m 6f 21y

#1

Rank

Odds

13/8

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

100%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced Cable Bay filly who was much improved in a first-time visor (retained) on her handicap debut when landing 7-runner event over C&D 21 days ago. Expected to be bang there nudged up 2 lb.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength77%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.1 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.4
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Lingfield 27/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 1m2f Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS27/0443 @ Lingfield 13/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 1m2f1y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS13/0833 @ Ffos Las 27/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 1m3f209y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS27/0833 @ Ripon 26/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 74 · 1m4f10y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/09/2026 · OR 74 par26/093OR 745 @ Southwell 10/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 71 · 1m6f21y Std 132 · beat its mark10/10/2026 · OR 71 par10/105OR 71projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-10SouthwellD C Costello51st1st0
2026-09-26RiponD C Costello33rd1st+2
2026-08-27Ffos LasDaniel Muscutt33rd1st+2
2026-08-13LingfieldDavid Probert34th2nd+2
2026-04-27LingfieldHarry Davies43rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0413/0827/0826/0910/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 77/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +9.9% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/04/20263rd28/10%82%+0.82
13/08/20264th7/282%63%-0.19
27/08/20263rd10/147%50%+0.03
26/09/20263rd20/10%75%+0.75
10/10/20261st16/116%100%+0.84