6
New Bay Star
3yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 5 · OR 65
Southwell · Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Apprentice Handicap · 1m 6f 21y
#6
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | Southwell | Jason Watson | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-10-01 | Nottingham | Ray Dawson | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | Yarmouth | Ray Dawson | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Southwell | Alistair Rawlinson | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | Mr H C Swan | ? | 11th | 15th | −3 |
| 2026-01-21 | Kempton | Billy Loughnane | 3 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 3-6 · tight 64/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength33%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/2025 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 11/12/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 09/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 21/01/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 29/07/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 41% | +0.41 |
| 31/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 17/09/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 01/10/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 54% | -0.07 |
| 26/10/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |