1
Minella Hollow
6yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 125
Wetherby · 6 Horses Challenge At bet365 Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m
#1
Rank
Odds
5/6
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
100%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.6
Today: 3
Class gap: -3.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Gowran Park | Daniel King | 1 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-09-25 | Listowel | Mr O McGill | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Killarney | Daniel King | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-08-04 | Roscommon | Daniel King | ? | 4th | 10th | −5 |
| 2025-10-19 | Limerick | Daniel King | ? | 3rd | 9th | −5 |
| 2025-09-20 | Navan | Daniel King | ? | 4th | 10th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 83/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05/2024 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/06/2024 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 17/11/2024 | 4th | 10/11 | 95% | 40% | -0.55 |
| 20/09/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 19/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 04/08/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 25/09/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 58% | +0.11 |
| 03/10/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |