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6

Venezuelan

4yo Gelding · 10-13

Wetherby · 6 Horses Challenge At bet365 Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Hasn't been at his fairly useful best on the Flat since joining his present yard but made quite an encouraging debut over hurdles with cheekpieces refitted when second of 8 in 2m maiden at Uttoxeter recently. A big step forward required to trouble standard-setter Minella Hollow, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Lingfield 09/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 81 · 1m3f133y Goo 132 · beat its mark09/08/2025 · OR 81 par9/085OR 814 @ Newmarket 22/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 81 · 1m4f Goo 135 · beat its mark22/08/2025 · OR 81 par4 @ Wolverhampton 06/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 81 · 1m4f51y Std 137 · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 81 par6/104OR 814 @ Chester 30/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 82 · 1m7f196y Gd 139 · below its mark30/05/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Chester 27/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 82 · 1m7f196y Goo 137 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 82 par27/064OR 824 @ Chester 11/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 80 · 1m6f87y Goo 142 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 78 · 2m56y Goo 133 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 78 par24/074OR 784 @ Chester 22/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 76 · 1m7f196y Goo 137 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ Uttoxeter 04/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m7f168y Gd 1574/104projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 3
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-04UttoxeterJames Davies42nd3rd−1
2026-08-22ChesterJack Nicholls48th9th−1
2026-07-24YorkJack Nicholls48th9th−1
2026-07-11ChesterZoe Lewis44th5th−1
2026-06-27ChesterToby Moore44th5th−1
2026-05-30ChesterGina Mangan48th9th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0830/0524/074/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/08/20251st6/594%100%+0.06
22/08/20252nd4/998%50%-0.48
06/10/20252nd13/891%89%-0.03
30/05/20268th16/116%13%-0.03
27/06/20264th20/10%50%+0.50
11/07/20264th13/266%40%-0.26
24/07/20268th28/10%42%+0.42
22/08/20268th22/10%13%+0.13
04/10/20262nd10/382%86%+0.03