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4

Marty Mcfly

8yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 119

Wetherby · Position Payout At bet365 Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 3f 85y

#4

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Thriving when completing chase 4-timer with fairly useful effort at Carlisle in March and was likely over the top at Ayr the following month. Heavy defeat over hurdles 16 days ago will have served a purpose ahead of return to chasing but yard quiet.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Perth 25/04/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 93 · 2m4f35y Goo 158 · below its mark25/04/2025 · OR 93 par25/045OR 935 @ Hexham 07/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 92 · 2m4f15y Goo 158 · beat its mark07/06/2025 · OR 92 par5 @ Newcastle 14/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 95 · 2m4f19y Goo 163 · below its mark14/11/2025 · OR 95 par14/115OR 955 @ Musselburgh 08/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 94 · 2m7f138y Sft 165 · below its mark08/12/2025 · OR 94 par5 @ Musselburgh 01/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 93 · 2m4f68y GS 162 · beat its mark01/01/2026 · OR 93 par1/015OR 935 @ Catterick 21/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 99 · 2m3f51y GS 168 · beat its mark21/01/2026 · OR 99 par5 @ Catterick 04/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 105 · 1m7f145y Goo 168 · beat its mark04/03/2026 · OR 105 par4/035OR 1052 @ Carlisle 22/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 112 · 1m7f207y Goo 157 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/03/2026 · OR 112 par4 @ Perth 15/10/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 112 · 2m47y Sft 160 · below its mark15/10/2026 · OR 112 par15/104OR 112projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-15PerthB S Hughes48th9th−1
2026-04-17AyrDanny McMenamin30
2026-03-22CarlisleDanny McMenamin21st0th+1
2026-03-04CatterickB S Hughes51st3rd−2
2026-01-21CatterickB S Hughes51st3rd−2
2026-01-01MusselburghB S Hughes51st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/048/124/0315/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 72/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength82%

Delivery trend +0.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/04/20259th11/142%27%-0.15
07/06/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
14/11/20257th22/10%33%+0.33
08/12/20254th12/137%70%+0.33
01/01/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
21/01/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
04/03/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
22/03/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
15/10/20268th18/15%13%+0.07