1
Palamon
6yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 123
Wetherby · Position Payout At bet365 Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 3f 85y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
86%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength46%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | Plumpton | Harry Skelton | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-10-13 | Southwell | Tristan Durrell | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-25 | Worcester | Harry Skelton | 2 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-29 | Cartmel | Harry Skelton | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-19 | Worcester | Tristan Durrell | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Uttoxeter | C J Todd | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength75%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/03/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 09/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 26/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 19/08/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 25/09/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 64% | -0.21 |
| 13/10/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 19/10/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |