5

Tanking Along

7yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 118

Wetherby · Position Payout At bet365 Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 3f 85y

#3

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Enthusiastic front runner who helped contribute to excellent start to the season for the stable when winning twice this autumn. 8 lb rise in a better race asks a different question but he's clearly in excellent order

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength4%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Sedgefield 05/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 93 · 2m178y Sft 163 · below its mark05/12/2025 · OR 93 par5/125OR 935 @ Sedgefield 10/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 92 · 2m77y Goo 160 · beat its mark10/03/2026 · OR 92 par2 @ Carlisle 22/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 98 · 1m7f207y Goo 143 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/03/2026 · OR 98 par22/032OR 983 @ Ayr 17/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 98 · 2m110y Sft 145 · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 98 par4 @ Kelso 06/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 105 · 2m1f14y Gd 157 · below its mark06/05/2026 · OR 105 par6/054OR 1055 @ Perth 14/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 105 · 2m4f20y Goo 168 · below its mark14/05/2026 · OR 105 par4 @ Cartmel 29/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 107 · 2m1f61y Goo 156 · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 107 par29/084OR 1074 @ Sedgefield 29/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 106 · 2m5f28y Goo 166 · beat its mark29/09/2026 · OR 106 par4 @ Perth 15/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 110 · 2m4f20y Sft 158 · beat its mark15/10/2026 · OR 110 par15/104OR 110projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-15PerthB S Hughes41st2nd−1
2026-09-29SedgefieldB S Hughes41st2nd−1
2026-08-29CartmelB S Hughes45th6th−1
2026-05-14PerthCharlie Maggs52nd4th−2
2026-05-06KelsoCharlie Maggs42nd3rd−1
2026-04-17AyrCharlie Maggs33rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/1217/0429/0815/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength92%

Delivery trend +2.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/12/20254th9/488%40%-0.48
10/03/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
22/03/20266th7/163%55%-0.09
17/04/20263rd16/116%75%+0.59
06/05/20262nd4/179%83%+0.04
14/05/20262nd9/488%80%-0.08
29/08/20265th8/158%0%-0.58
29/09/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
15/10/20261st4/179%100%+0.21