2
Kateira
9yo Mare · 11-4 · OR 140
Wetherby · bet365 Montagu Mares' Hurdle (Listed) (GBB Race) · 2m
#1
Rank
Odds
5/6
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
94%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Chepstow | Jack Andrews | 2 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2026-03-11 | Cheltenham | Harry Skelton | 1 | 6th | 6th | −0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Ascot | N de Boinville | 2 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-01-31 | Musselburgh | Tristan Durrell | 2 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Doncaster | Tristan Durrell | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Ascot | Tristan Durrell | 1 | 4th | 4th | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 4100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 81/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 4.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/12/2024 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 25/01/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 01/11/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 22/11/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 13/12/2025 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |
| 31/01/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 22% | -0.30 |
| 14/02/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 11/03/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.18 |
| 09/10/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |