La Conquiere
7yo Mare · 11-2 · OR 132
Wetherby · bet365 Montagu Mares' Hurdle (Listed) (GBB Race) · 2m
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Aintree | J J Burke | 1 | 6th | 6th | −0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Cheltenham | G Sheehan | 1 | 14th | 14th | −0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Ascot | G Sheehan | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Newbury | G Sheehan | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2025-10-31 | Uttoxeter | G Sheehan | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-04-03 | Aintree | G Sheehan | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -21.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/12/2024 | 2nd | 80/1 | 0% | 94% | +0.94 |
| 03/04/2025 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 95% | +0.95 |
| 31/10/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 29/11/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 17/01/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 12/03/2026 | 14th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.09 |
| 10/04/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |