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Paggane

7yo Mare · 10-9 · OR 142

Wetherby · bet365 Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The West Yorkshire Hurdle) (GBB Race) · 3m 26y

#3

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Previously in the care of Willie Mullins and fine start over jumps for current yard last season, going close in a valuable Chepstow handicap hurdle prior to bagging listed events over fences at Carlisle and Market Rasen. Added to tally from handy Flat mark in September.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength13%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 2.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA137 @ Killarney 11/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 137 · 3m2f Yie 161 · below its mark11/05/2025 · OR 137 par11/05137OR 1375 @ Ffos Las 29/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 75 · 1m3f209y Sft 142 · beat its mark29/06/2025 · OR 75 par4 @ Haydock 18/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 75 · 1m6f Goo 126 · beat its mark18/07/2025 · OR 75 par18/074OR 752 @ Chepstow 11/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 137 · 2m3f100y Gd 159 · below its mark11/10/2025 · OR 137 par1 @ Carlisle 02/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 147 · 2m3f210y Goo 156 · beat its mark02/11/2025 · OR 147 par2/111OR 1471 @ Market Rasen 26/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 148 · 2m7f191y Goo 160 · beat its mark26/11/2025 · OR 148 par1 @ Doncaster 29/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 148 · 2m4f115y Goo 160 · below its mark29/12/2025 · OR 148 par29/121OR 1481 @ Huntingdon 05/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 148 · 2m3f189y Sft 160 · below its mark05/02/2026 · OR 148 par3 @ Goodwood 23/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 73 · 1m6f Goo 133 · beat its mark23/09/2026 · OR 73 par23/093OR 73projClass-projected finish: 4th of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23GoodwoodSaffie Osborne31st4th−3
2026-02-05HuntingdonHarry Cobden15th6th−0
2025-12-29DoncasterJames Bowen13rd4th−0
2025-11-26Market RasenHarry Cobden11st2nd−0
2025-11-02CarlisleHarry Cobden11st2nd−0
2025-10-11ChepstowJames Bowen22nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0511/1029/1223/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 40% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 45/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength45%

Delivery trend -4.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 4. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/05/20252nd11/486%92%+0.07
29/06/20253rd14/126%75%+0.49
18/07/20254th7/282%57%-0.24
11/10/20252nd50/10%92%+0.92
02/11/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
26/11/20251st1/195%100%+0.05
29/12/20253rd5/287%50%-0.37
05/02/20265th11/893%20%-0.73
23/09/20261st11/142%100%+0.58