IvyArcIvyArc
2

Riskintheground

9yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 146

Wetherby · bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) · 3m 45y

#6

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★ Timeform

Commentary

Smart handicap chaser who shaped as if needing the run returning from a career-high mark at Ffos Las recently but likely to come up short at this level.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Cheltenham 24/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 142 · 2m4f127y Sft 158 · below its mark24/01/2026 · OR 142 par24/011OR 1421 @ Newbury 07/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 140 · 2m7f91y Hvy 162 · below its mark07/02/2026 · OR 140 par2 @ Kempton 21/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 140 · 2m4f110y Goo 163 · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 140 par21/022OR 1401 @ Cheltenham 10/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 23 · OR 137 · 2m4f44y GS 151 · below its mark10/03/2026 · OR 137 par1 @ Haydock 15/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 136 · 2m3f203y Goo 158 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 136 par15/041OR 1362 @ Uttoxeter 24/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 140 · 2m4f Gd 163 · below its mark24/05/2026 · OR 140 par2 @ Perth 07/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 140 · 2m7f180y Gd 158 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 140 par7/062OR 1402 @ Uttoxeter 28/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 144 · 3m10y Goo 166 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 144 par2 @ Ffos Las 14/10/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 147 · 2m3f83y Sft 160 · below its mark14/10/2026 · OR 147 par14/102OR 147projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-14Ffos LasC J Todd26th8th−2
2026-06-28UttoxeterHarry Skelton23rd5th−2
2026-06-07PerthHarry Skelton21st3rd−2
2026-05-24UttoxeterHarry Skelton22nd4th−2
2026-04-15HaydockHarry Skelton11st2nd−1
2026-03-10CheltenhamC J Todd111th12th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0110/037/0614/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 4-6 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength21%

Delivery trend +1.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/01/202610th50/10%10%+0.10
07/02/20264th40/10%0%0.00
21/02/20269th100/10%0%0.00
10/03/202611th80/10%55%+0.55
15/04/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
24/05/20262nd5/696%80%-0.16
07/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
28/06/20263rd5/174%83%+0.10
14/10/20266th25/10%29%+0.29