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The Real Whacker

10yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 153

Wetherby · bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) · 3m 45y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won this in 2024 but largely found life tough after, including when last in this 12 months ago. However, confirmed promise of his summer run when making all off 149 at Perth last month, jumping well in different headgear (blinkers). Fully entitled to another crack at this with his yard flying.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Wetherby 02/11/2024 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 155 · 3m45y Gd 158 · beat its mark02/11/2024 · OR 155 par2/111OR 1551 @ Kempton 26/12/2024 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 159 · 3m Goo 164 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/12/2024 · OR 159 par1 @ Cheltenham 14/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 159 · 3m2f70y GS 164 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/03/2025 · OR 159 par14/031OR 1591 @ Aintree 03/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 157 · 3m210y Goo 164 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/04/2025 · OR 157 par2 @ Perth 25/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 146 · 2m7f207y Goo 168 · below its mark25/09/2025 · OR 146 par25/092OR 1461 @ Wetherby 01/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 156 · 3m45y Gd 164 · below its mark01/11/2025 · OR 156 par1 @ Cheltenham 01/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 146 · 2m4f56y Gd 154 · below its mark01/01/2026 · OR 146 par1/011OR 1462 @ Perth 07/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 150 · 2m7f180y Gd 168 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 150 par2 @ Perth 23/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 149 · 2m7f180y Goo 168 · beat its mark23/09/2026 · OR 149 par23/092OR 149projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23PerthB S Hughes21st3rd−2
2026-06-07PerthB S Hughes23rd5th−2
2026-04-11AintreeG Sheehan1−1
2026-01-01CheltenhamS Bowen16th6th0
2025-11-01WetherbyB S Hughes15th5th0
2025-09-25PerthB S Hughes22nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/113/041/0123/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 37/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength58%

Delivery trend -4.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/11/20241st5/174%100%+0.26
26/12/20244th14/126%70%+0.44
14/03/20255th28/10%50%+0.50
03/04/20254th12/137%50%+0.13
25/09/20252nd4/179%67%-0.12
01/11/20255th9/276%0%-0.76
01/01/20266th12/137%0%-0.37
07/06/20263rd12/137%78%+0.41
23/09/20261st9/276%100%+0.24