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Filibustering

5yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 128

Wetherby · Each Way Extra At bet365 Handicap Hurdle · 2m

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

66%

Place Prob

55%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Strong-travelling type. Landed a third successive hurdle success in emphatic fashion at Cartmel in late-June. Set plenty to do when third at Perth prior to finishing well-held eighth of 17 in Welsh Champion Hurdle latest. Respected back in calmer waters, even with yard not firing on all cylinders.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength60%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Doncaster 29/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 123 · 2m128y Sft 161 · below its mark29/11/2025 · OR 123 par29/114OR 1234 @ Kempton 02/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 118 · 2m Goo 166 · below its mark02/02/2026 · OR 118 par4 @ Ludlow 30/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 116 · 1m7f169y Gd 164 · below its mark30/03/2026 · OR 116 par30/034OR 1164 @ Newcastle 11/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 111 · 2m190y Gd 159 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 111 par3 @ Hexham 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 115 · 2m48y Gd 159 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 115 par2/053OR 1154 @ Kempton 27/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 75 · 1m7f218y Sta 133 · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 75 par2 @ Cartmel 28/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 122 · 2m1f46y Goo 157 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 122 par28/062OR 1222 @ Perth 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 129 · 2m47y Gd 168 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 129 par2 @ Chepstow 09/10/2026 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR 129 · 2m16y Goo 151 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/10/2026 · OR 129 par9/102OR 129projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-09ChepstowPaul O'Brien28th7th+1
2026-08-15PerthPaul O'Brien23rd2nd+1
2026-06-28CartmelPaul O'Brien21st0th+1
2026-05-27KemptonK Shoemark46th7th−1
2026-05-02HexhamRyan Mania31st1st0
2026-04-11NewcastleRyan Mania41st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/1111/0428/069/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 4100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 90/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +10.4% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 4. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/11/20256th11/486%29%-0.57
02/02/20268th9/276%22%-0.54
30/03/20265th8/158%20%-0.38
11/04/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
02/05/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
27/05/20266th9/153%50%-0.03
28/06/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
15/08/20263rd3/184%71%-0.13
09/10/20268th14/126%56%+0.30