2
Race To Base
6yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 121
Wetherby · Each Way Extra At bet365 Handicap Hurdle · 2m
#2
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
33%
Place Prob
39%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Sandown | J M Quinlan | 2 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Sandown | Harry Cobden | 1 | +2 | ||
| 2026-01-12 | Hereford | Sam Twiston-Davies | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-06 | Aintree | Sam Twiston-Davies | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-11 | Hereford | Sam Twiston-Davies | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Uttoxeter | K Brogan | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 467% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 77/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.3% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 4. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2024 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 12/02/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 22/04/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 05/10/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 56% | -0.31 |
| 11/11/2025 | 1st | 1/5 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 06/12/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 12/01/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 77% | -0.07 |
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |