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2

Paddy O'Mahler

8yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 112

Wetherby · bet365 Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 3m 45y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

11%

Place Prob

22%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Much improved switched to fences last season, making it back-to-back wins when knuckling down well at Haydock. Posted a career best when rallying second at Catterick in February but didn't get very far at Carlisle the following month. Yard won last year's renewal with one making its reappearance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength22%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wetherby 27/12/2024 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 92 · 3m26y Goo 160 · below its mark27/12/2024 · OR 92 par27/125OR 925 @ Wetherby 23/01/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 92 · 3m26y Sft 160 · beat its mark23/01/2025 · OR 92 par4 @ Kelso 14/02/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 99 · 2m6f151y Sft 148 · below its mark14/02/2025 · OR 99 par14/024OR 994 @ Uttoxeter 29/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 99 · 2m7f70y Goo 148 · below its mark29/03/2025 · OR 99 par4 @ Market Rasen 13/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 98 · 2m7f191y Goo 156 · below its mark13/11/2025 · OR 98 par13/114OR 984 @ Wetherby 26/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 100 · 3m45y Sft 158 · below its mark26/11/2025 · OR 100 par4 @ Newcastle 11/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 100 · 2m7f91y Goo 156 · beat its mark11/12/2025 · OR 100 par11/124OR 1004 @ Haydock 30/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 105 · 3m1f125y Goo 154 · beat its mark30/12/2025 · OR 105 par4 @ Catterick 24/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 110 · 3m1f54y Goo 158 · below its mark24/02/2026 · OR 110 par24/024OR 110projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-03-22CarlisleCallum Bewley2+2
2026-02-24CatterickDanny McMenamin42nd2nd0
2025-12-30HaydockCallum Bewley41st1st0
2025-12-11NewcastleDanny McMenamin41st1st0
2025-11-26WetherbyPeter Kavanagh42nd2nd0
2025-11-13Market RasenDanny McMenamin42nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1229/0311/1224/02
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 433% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 78/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength78%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 4.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/12/20245th8/158%73%+0.15
23/01/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
14/02/20254th7/163%73%+0.10
29/03/20255th4/179%64%-0.15
13/11/20252nd5/287%67%-0.20
26/11/20252nd10/1195%75%-0.20
11/12/20251st15/890%100%+0.10
30/12/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
24/02/20262nd2/189%80%-0.09