Astonesthrowaway
5yo Mare · 8-9 · Draw 5 · OR 62
Woodbine · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Woodbine | Eswan Flores | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Woodbine | Eswan Flores | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2024-04-20 | Aqueduct | Jose Gomez | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2023-08-20 | Saratoga | Luis Saez | ? | 5th | 1st | +3 |
| 2023-06-15 | Belmont Park | Eric Cancel | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -12.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/2023 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 20/08/2023 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 20/04/2024 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 30/08/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 02/10/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |