3
Twist Of Sugar
3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 74
Woodbine · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
82%
Place Prob
59%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Woodbine | Fraser Aebly | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Woodbine | Romero Maragh | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Woodbine | Romero Maragh | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Woodbine | Romero Maragh | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Woodbine | Romero Maragh | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Woodbine | Romero Maragh | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 19/04/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 29/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 30/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 02/10/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |