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2

Earendel

4yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 2 · OR 76

Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Woodbine 22/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 82 · 7f 119 · below its mark22/11/2025 · OR 82 par22/11C7OR 82C9 @ Woodbine 12/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 76 · 7f Fas 119 · beat its mark12/12/2025 · OR 76 parC8 @ Woodbine 18/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 69 · 5f 123 · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 69 par18/04C8OR 69C8 @ Woodbine 08/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 70 · 7f 123 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 70 parC8 @ Woodbine 30/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 73 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark30/05/2026 · OR 73 par30/05C8OR 73C8 @ Woodbine 26/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 74 · 6f110y Fas 121 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 74 parC8 @ Woodbine 06/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 71 · 7f110y Fm 121 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 71 par6/08C8OR 71C6 @ Woodbine 29/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 71 · 6f110y Fm 123 · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 71 parC6 @ Woodbine 17/10/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 77 · 7f110y 123 · below its mark17/10/2026 · OR 77 par17/10C6OR 77projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-17WoodbinePietro Moran?6th6th0
2026-08-29WoodbinePietro Moran?4th4th0
2026-08-06WoodbinePietro Moran?1st3rd−2
2026-06-26WoodbineFraser Aebly?7th9th−2
2026-05-30WoodbineFraser Aebly?4th6th−2
2026-05-08WoodbineFraser Aebly?1st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/118/056/0817/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 8-9 · tight 85/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength0%

Delivery trend -1.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/11/20256th3/184%29%-0.56
12/12/20251st1/195%100%+0.05
18/04/20264th9/153%50%-0.03
08/05/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
30/05/20264th5/174%40%-0.34
26/06/20267th15/261%0%-0.61
06/08/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
29/08/20264th11/486%50%-0.36
17/10/20266th10/147%17%-0.31