3
Fourfiftyfour
5yo Mare · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 84
Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Woodbine | Daisuke Fukumoto | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Woodbine | Daisuke Fukumoto | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Woodbine | Fraser Aebly | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Woodbine | Fraser Aebly | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Woodbine | Rafael Hernandez | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Woodbine | Rafael Hernandez | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 2-9 · tight 43/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength39%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 17/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 08/11/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 45% | -0.28 |
| 31/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 16/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 04/10/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |