IvyArcIvyArc
9

Hard To Capture

7yo Mare · 8-11 · Draw 9 · OR 84

Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

33%

Place Prob

26%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Woodbine 08/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 83 · 7f 122 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 83 par8/05C7OR 83C7 @ Woodbine 22/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 82 · 6f110y 122 · below its mark22/05/2026 · OR 82 parC8 @ Woodbine 06/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 82 · 6f110y Fas 123 · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 82 par6/06C8OR 82C8 @ Woodbine 10/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 81 · 6f Fas 123 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 81 parC8 @ Woodbine 06/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 83 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark06/08/2026 · OR 83 par6/08C8OR 83C6 @ Woodbine 29/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 82 · 6f110y Fm 123 · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 82 parC6 @ Woodbine 19/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 84 · 6f Fm 123 · below its mark19/09/2026 · OR 84 par19/09C6OR 84C8 @ Woodbine 25/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 84 · 6f110y Fas 123 · below its mark25/09/2026 · OR 84 parC8 @ Woodbine 15/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 84 · 6f110y Fas 123 · beat its mark15/10/2026 · OR 84 par15/10C8OR 84projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-15WoodbineSkye Chernetz?1st3rd−2
2026-09-25WoodbineSkye Chernetz?4th6th−2
2026-09-19WoodbineSkye Chernetz?8th8th0
2026-08-29WoodbineSkye Chernetz?5th5th0
2026-08-06WoodbineSkye Chernetz?3rd5th−2
2026-07-10WoodbineSkye Chernetz?1st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0510/0719/0915/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 43/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength58%

Delivery trend +4.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/05/20263rd13/266%67%+0.01
22/05/20262nd13/266%83%+0.18
06/06/20266th16/116%17%+0.01
10/07/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
06/08/20263rd9/153%75%+0.22
29/08/20265th9/153%33%-0.19
19/09/20268th20/10%13%+0.13
25/09/20264th11/271%50%-0.21
15/10/20261st20/10%100%+1.00