Rarified
4yo Filly · 8-13 · Draw 6 · OR 79
Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
33%
Place Prob
26%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Woodbine | Jalon Samuel | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-17 | Woodbine | Jalon Samuel | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-09-04 | Woodbine | Jalon Samuel | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-16 | Woodbine | Jalon Samuel | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Woodbine | Jalon Samuel | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | Jalon Samuel | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 40% | -0.53 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 06/06/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 10% | -0.37 |
| 25/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/08/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 17/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 16/10/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |