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7

Rock Hard Rose

4yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 7 · OR 82

Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Charles Town 22/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 78 · 7f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/02/2026 · OR 78 par22/02C5OR 78C5 @ Charles Town 15/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 78 · 6f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/03/2026 · OR 78 parC7 @ Penn National 26/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 79 · 6f Fas 120 · below its mark26/03/2026 · OR 79 par26/03C7OR 79C8 @ Woodbine 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 75 · 5f110y 123 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 75 parC7 @ Woodbine 15/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 75 · 6f 126 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 75 par15/05C7OR 75C8 @ Woodbine 13/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 77 · 6f Fas 124 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 77 parC8 @ Woodbine 06/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 81 · 6f Fas 123 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 81 par6/08C8OR 81C6 @ Woodbine 22/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 81 · 5f110y 123 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 81 parC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 12/10/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 84 · 6f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/10/2026 · OR 84 par12/10C5OR 84projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-12Presque Isle DownsFraser Aebly?4th3rd+1
2026-08-22WoodbineEmma Jayne Wilson?2nd2nd0
2026-08-06WoodbineEmma Jayne Wilson?1st3rd−2
2026-06-13WoodbineEmma Jayne Wilson?1st3rd−2
2026-05-15WoodbineFraser Aebly?2nd3rd−1
2026-05-02WoodbineFraser Aebly?1st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/022/056/0812/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 60/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength78%

Delivery trend +1.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/02/20263rd3/184%60%-0.24
15/03/20264th11/271%25%-0.46
26/03/20263rd4/179%33%-0.46
02/05/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
15/05/20262nd10/382%83%+0.01
13/06/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
06/08/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
22/08/20262nd7/282%86%+0.04
12/10/20264th13/891%25%-0.66