5
Verdejo
7yo Mare · 8-9 · Draw 5 · OR 89
Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
27%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Woodbine | Pietro Moran | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-09-25 | Woodbine | Pietro Moran | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-22 | Woodbine | Eswan Flores | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Woodbine | Rafael Hernandez | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Woodbine | Eswan Flores | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | Eswan Flores | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 43/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength71%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 18/04/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 22/08/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 25/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 15/10/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |