4
Malibu Betty
4yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 67
Woodbine · Race 11 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Woodbine | Xarel Forde | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | Woodbine | Xarel Forde | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-04 | Woodbine | Xarel Forde | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Woodbine | Xarel Forde | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | Xarel Forde | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | Romero Maragh | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 3-8 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength46%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 12/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 05/07/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 23/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.34 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 24/09/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 11/10/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |