8
Alfred Bellows
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 8 · OR 69
Woodbine · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
36%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Woodbine | Emma Jayne Wilson | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-09-25 | Woodbine | Christoff Douglas | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Woodbine | Christoff Douglas | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Woodbine | Christoff Douglas | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | Christoff Douglas | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | Leo Salles | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 45/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength60%
Delivery trend +8.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/2025 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 10% | -0.58 |
| 03/05/2026 | 11th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 26/06/2026 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 14% | -0.75 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 28/08/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 14% | -0.67 |
| 25/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 16/10/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |