2
Big Baby Henry
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 2 · OR 80
Woodbine · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Woodbine | Keveh Nicholls | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | Woodbine | Keveh Nicholls | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Woodbine | Keveh Nicholls | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Woodbine | Keveh Nicholls | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Woodbine | Keveh Nicholls | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | Keveh Nicholls | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength72%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 69% | -0.04 |
| 29/11/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 15/08/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 44% | -0.38 |
| 06/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 78% | +0.15 |
| 02/10/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |