3
Dontgobackonurword
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 84
Woodbine · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Woodbine | Pietro Moran | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-25 | Woodbine | Pietro Moran | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Woodbine | Pietro Moran | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | Daisuke Fukumoto | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Woodbine | Daisuke Fukumoto | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Woodbine | Daisuke Fukumoto | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 4-8 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength25%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 12/12/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 56% | -0.31 |
| 28/08/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 25/09/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 57% | -0.31 |
| 09/10/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |