4
Gran Spirited
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 82
Woodbine · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Woodbine | Jose Campos | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Woodbine | Jose Campos | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | Woodbine | Jose Campos | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Woodbine | Jose Campos | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | Jeffrey Alderson | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | Pierre Mailhot | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength75%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 07/10/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 20/10/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 15/08/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 56% | -0.05 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.28 |
| 18/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 09/10/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |