Your Valentino

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 6 · OR 84

Woodbine · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

33%

Place Prob

26%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength36%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.2

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-23	Woodbine	Rafael Hernandez	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-10-09	Woodbine	Rafael Hernandez	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-09-18	Woodbine	Xarel Forde	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-08-10	Fort Erie	Xarel Forde	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-06-21	Fort Erie	Juan Crawford	?	6th	5th	+1	5.2
2026-05-22	Woodbine	Juan Crawford	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 45/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▬

Strength58%

Delivery trend -0.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
07/11/2025	6th	12/1	37%	17%	-0.20
30/11/2025	5th	10/1	47%	20%	-0.27
14/12/2025	9th	9/2	76%	11%	-0.65
22/05/2026	5th	20/1	0%	33%	+0.33
21/06/2026	6th	6/1	68%	17%	-0.52
10/08/2026	3rd	4/1	79%	50%	-0.29
18/09/2026	4th	5/1	74%	50%	-0.24
09/10/2026	3rd	13/2	66%	71%	+0.06
23/10/2026	5th	11/4	86%	33%	-0.52