Beach Factor
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 7 · OR 73
Woodbine · Race 3 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
28%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Woodbine | Rico Walcott | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-09-07 | Woodbine | Christoff Douglas | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-16 | Woodbine | Jalon Samuel | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Woodbine | Da Sean Gaskin | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | Romero Maragh | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Woodbine | Jose Campos | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 13/09/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 04/10/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 16/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 04/10/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |