Erie Shores
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 5 · OR 74
Woodbine · Race 3 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Woodbine | Da Sean Gaskin | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Woodbine | Jeffrey Alderson | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Woodbine | Pietro Moran | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Woodbine | Xarel Forde | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Woodbine | Fraser Aebly | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-08-24 | Woodbine | Fraser Aebly | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 05/10/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 30/11/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 26/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 15/08/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/10/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |