Mystic Path

3yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 4 · OR 77

Woodbine · Race 3 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength29%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.2

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-06	Woodbine	Rafael Hernandez	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-07-05	Woodbine	Sahin Civaci	?	7th	6th	+1	3.6
2026-05-24	Woodbine	Eswan Flores	?	7th	6th	+1	3.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 6-7 · tight 72/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength3%

Delivery trend -7.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
24/05/2026	7th	9/2	76%	40%	-0.36
05/07/2026	7th	13/2	66%	33%	-0.32
06/09/2026	7th	9/2	76%	25%	-0.51