2
Paddy Holiday
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 2 · OR 75
Woodbine · Race 3 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
78%
Place Prob
57%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Woodbine | Fraser Aebly | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | Woodbine | Fraser Aebly | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Woodbine | Sahin Civaci | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Woodbine | Fraser Aebly | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | Fraser Aebly | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength52%
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |
| 26/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 16/08/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 06/09/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 27/09/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |