Karat Gold

2yo Filly · 8-6 · Draw 6 · OR 79

Woodbine · Race 4 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

20%

Place Prob

25%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength12%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.2

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-26	Woodbine	Fraser Aebly	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-09-05	Woodbine	Fraser Aebly	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-08-15	Woodbine	Jose Campos	?	6th	5th	+1	4.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 2-7 · tight 41/100

▲ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength45%

Delivery trend -28.4% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
15/08/2026	6th	50/1	0%	50%	+0.50
05/09/2026	2nd	5/2	87%	80%	-0.07
26/09/2026	2nd	15/8	90%	83%	-0.07