4
Maria Sofia
2yo Filly · 8-6 · Draw 4 · OR 80
Woodbine · Race 4 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength48%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Woodbine | Keveh Nicholls | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-30 | Woodbine | Luis Reyes | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-08-01 | Woodbine | Keveh Nicholls | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 51/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +13.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 44% | -0.35 |
| 30/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 03/10/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |